SKRIPSI PBS
ANALISIS KEAKURATAN INDIKATOR MOVING AVERAGE CONVERGENCE DIVERGENCE (MACD), GARIS SUPPORT RESISTANCE DAN VOLUME DALAM MENENTUKAN KEPUTUSAN JUAL DAN BELI SAHAM YANG TERDAFTAR DALAM JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX (JII)
ABSTRACT The progress of a country can be seen through how many investors invest in investment instruments. The growth of investors in Indonesia has increased from year to year. Currently people are starting to realize the importance of investment with various factors. Among them as a future asset, to increase the value of wealth, fight inflation, advance the country's economy, side income and even as a profession and as a short-term buying and selling instrument to gain profits. Investors in making decisions to sell and buy shares want profits in the form of maximum capital gains and minimize or even avoid risks in every transaction. Investors can make rational buying and selling decisions in investing and reduce anxiety about price fluctuations that occur. In analyzing stocks, there are two analyzes used, namely fundamental and technical analysis. Fundamental analysis is an analysis performed by looking at a company's performance by reading a company's financial statements, while technical analysis is an analysis used to analyze statistics produced by past market activity to predict future price changes. In technical analysis there are two methods that can be used, namely classic and modern technical analysis. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and volume are included in the category of modern technical analysis while support and resistance are included in classic technical analysis. This study aims to test and provide empirical evidence of the accuracy of technical analysis indicators, namely the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Support Resistance and Volume in predicting the direction of stock price movements on the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). To achieve the research objectives, a sample of 4 company shares was collected by purposive sampling technique. The stocks used as samples were stocks that experienced golden crosses and death crosses for MACD, stocks that experienced breakout resistance and breakdown support for support resistance and stocks that experienced an increase in buying volume and an increase in selling volume during the observation period, namely January 2020-December 2022. Data obtained through the TradingView website. To test the research hypothesis regarding the accuracy of the MACD technical analysis indicators, Support Resistance and Volume, a non-parametric Mann-Whitney test was carried out which can prove statistically whether there is a significant difference between stock price direction signals generated by MACD technical analysis indicators, Support Resistance and Volume with reality. The results of this study found that there was no difference between the signals for the direction of stock price movements generated by the MACD, Support Resistance and Volume technical analysis indicators and the reality. Thus, this study provides empirical evidence of the accuracy of the technical analysis indicators MACD, Support Resistance and Volume in predicting the direction of movement of stock prices that are incorporated in the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). The findings of this study can be used as a reference for capital market investors in
xv selecting technical analysis methods that can assist in making more informed investment decisions. Keywords: Technical Analysis; Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD); Support Resistance; Volume; Share; Investment
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